I believe that motivation will be a significant factor in this game, and I’m inclined to give the advantage to Fils. While Tommy Paul had an impressive first-round performance, it’s worth noting that his opponent, Offner, had a demanding week in Beijing, which could have taken a toll on him physically.

On the other hand, Arthur appeared quite strong in his first two matches, showing excellence in his serving and impressive return statistics.

Additionally, Tommy Paul only managed to land 56% of his first serves, and if Fils can capitalize on Tommy’s second serves as he did against Fokina today, we might witness some intriguing developments.

It’s also worth considering that the season is drawing to a close, and Tommy Paul might already have his mind set on vacation, as that’s the kind of player he tends to be.
In my opinion, taking a set from Fils represents good value in this situation.

Fils to take a set @1.65